Sep 8, 2013

Putin: lonely, scared and confused

Talk to real master of situation, not his shadow


Before the G-20 Summit Putin assured the world in the official interview  that he has not ruled out backing a U.S.-led military operation in Syria if the Kremlin gets concrete proof than an alleged chemical attack on civilians was committed by Bashar Assad’s regime. The sincerity of Putin’s intention was obvious – he bases all his prestige on the Soviet Victory in the WWII over atrocious regime of Hitler, but now he finds himself and Russia on the side of the “Syrian Hitler”, using gas against his own people.  Putin understands that despite his huge propaganda efforts, he will not be able to manipulate the public opinion for long. It seems suddenly he started to realize that this time he risks remaining on the wrong side of history.
For the West the Kremlins condition is quite easy to satisfy, as there are enough proofs that only the Assad forces could conduct the chemical attack.  Next day – one day before the Summit - Putin unexpectedly produced a U-turn, publicly called John Kerry a “liar” using an obvious manipulation.  Putin’s sudden change of heart is the main intrigue of the G-20 Summit and deserves some attention.
Failed Mega Deal
What happened in between? Day before the Summit Putin had a pompous meeting with the Chinese leader where Russia expected to sign a mega-deal for gas supply to China.  Then top Chinese official stated that any military actions in Middle East would lead to the oil prices growth and because of this the China opposes to the strike.  However, much advertised  “mega-deal”, expected by Russia, has failed as Chinese continue to insist on a half-price of the usual price Russia gets in Europe.
Moreover, a couple days earlier China signed a mega-deal with gas rich Turkmenistan, more than doubling the gas exports to China. Day after the Summit China struck a $30 billion deal with Kazakhstan including purchase of the $5 billion stake in the giant Kashagan oilfield.  
Therefore, China is not in hurry and can quietly wait, when Russia get totally isolated by the West and be ready for a slow and quiet technical takeover by China. China doesn’t want to invest in Russia, but agrees to finance some big industrial project as the Far East with a precondition that this enterprises will be in its ownership and workers will be only from China. As Russian economy is sinking despite the high oil and gas prices Putin a bit earlier or later will have to accept the Chinese proposition. This would mean a “forever concession” by China of the Russia’s Far East.
Russia’s Political Bluffing
This makes Russia extremely nervous and dependent on China. It gradually increases its influence in the region, which Russia considers its “legitimate sphere of interests” and leaves Russia out in the cold.  However, Russia does not dare to complain.  Instead, it pretends having a very special relation and a strong alliance with China as opposing to the failing relation with the West. 
China calls Russia a “major country” and lets it fight its revisionist fights with the West, but does not view Russia as an equal partner.  On the Chinese President visit’s  web page  there are mostly  pictures of  Chinese President with American President Obama, but there is no any picture with Russian President Putin.  This shows where the real China’s priorities are.  
Putin’s dependence on China explains Putin’s U-turn.  Trying hard to please Chinese President, he found not exactly elegant way to reverse his recent declaration on possible joining the international effort against Bashar Assad by calling John Kerry a “liar” and returned to his usual slogans about Syria.
Upgrading Role for China
Putin’s miserable position, which he masks with the massive PR efforts, promoting his image and ideas at the West, makes him useless as a negotiator on Syria.  The real master of the situation is China. If the leader of this country really thinks that the oil price growth is the only objection to the common action in Syria the negotiations should be conducted with him, not with the politically impotent Putin.  In this case, Chinese and the Western position on Syria coincide. Russia on the contrary is objectively interested in maintaining the civil war in Syria as a precondition for a high oil price, on which Russian economy depends.
The U.S. should convince China that the sooner the situation in Syria is resolved the sooner the oil prices would go down.  This could become a first international action, where China can show its political maturity and responsibility for the World. China could like this  as it is follows already the U.S. example offering assistance to the different countries. Cash rich China can show a real leadership helping freed from the Assad’s regime Syria after the conflict is over.

Jun 29, 2013

U.K. Finds Its Beppe Grillo - Bloomberg

U.K. Finds Its Beppe Grillo - Bloomberg

By Marc Champion Mar 1, 2013 2:19 PM GMT+0200

U.K. Prime Minister David Cameron's tactic of pledging to claw back powers from the European Union and then hold a referendum on whether to leave or stay in the bloc has failed its first election test.

That was the general consensus in the U.K. news media this morning, after Cameron's Conservative Party was reduced to a humiliating third place in a by-election in the southern constituency of Eastleigh. The Tories were beaten not only by their coalition partners, the Liberal Democrats (who held on to the seat), but also by the UK Independence Party.

The EU referendum pledge that Cameron made in January was designed precisely to stanch the flow of right-wing Conservatives to the UKIP. This week, it failed. Already this morning, conservative commentators in newspapers such as the Daily Telegraph were saying the result proved that Cameron should hold a referendum on whether to stay in the EU immediately, rather than by 2017; crack down harder on immigration; and abandon recent policies such as legalizing gay marriage.

Jun 24, 2013

The G8 should push for a ceasefire in Syria, Pope tells David Cameron | CatholicHerald.co.uk

The G8 should push for a ceasefire in Syria, Pope tells David Cameron | CatholicHerald.co.uk
David Cameron arrives in Belfast ahead of the G8 summit (PA)

David Cameron arrives in Belfast ahead of the G8 summit (PA)

The G8 nations meeting in Northern Ireland this week should push for “an immediate and lasting ceasefire” in Syria, Pope Francis has said in a letter to the British Prime Minister.

Responding to an earlier letter from David Cameron, Pope Francis wrote: “I earnestly hope that the summit will help to obtain an immediate and lasting ceasefire and to bring all parties in the conflict to the negotiating table. Peace demands a far-sighted renunciation of certain claims, in order to build together a more equitable and just peace. Moreover, peace is an essential pre-requisite for the protection of women, children and other innocent victims, and for making a start towards conquering hunger, especially among the victims of war.”

In his letter the Pope noted that the summit, which takes place today and tomorrow at Lough Erne in County Fermanagh, would focus on the British Government’s priorities of “the free and international market, taxation, and transparency on the part of the governments and economic actors”.

But he said that “fundamental reference to man is by no means lacking” in the summit agenda.

“The goal of economics and politics is to serve humanity, beginning with the poorest and most vulnerable wherever they may be, even in their mothers’ wombs,” he said. “This is the main thing; in the absence of such a vision, all economic activity is meaningless.”

Full text of Pope Francis’s letter to David Cameron, dated June 15:

To The Right Honourable David Cameron, MP Prime Minister,

I am pleased to reply to your kind letter of 5 June 2013, with which you were good enough to inform me of your Government’s agenda for the British G8 Presidency during the year 2013 and of the forthcoming Summit, due to take place at Lough Erne on 17 and 18 June 2013, entitled A G8 meeting that goes back to first principles.

If this topic is to attain its broadest and deepest resonance, it is necessary to ensure that all political and economic activity, whether national or international, makes reference to man. Indeed, such activity must, on the one hand, enable the maximum expression of freedom and creativity, both individual and collective, while on the other hand it must promote and guarantee their responsible exercise in solidarity, with particular attention to the poorest.

The priorities that the British Presidency has set out for the Lough Erne Summit are concerned above all with the free international market, taxation, and transparency on the part of governments and economic actors. Yet the fundamental reference to man is by no means lacking, specifically in the proposal for concerted action by the Group to eliminate definitively the scourge of hunger and to ensure food security. Similarly, a further sign of attention to the human person is the inclusion as one of the central themes on the agenda of the protection of women and children from sexual violence in conflict situations, even though it must be remembered that the indispensable context for the development of all the afore-mentioned political actions is that of international peace.

Sadly, concern over serious international crises is a recurring theme in the deliberations of the G8, and this year it cannot fail to address the situation in the Middle East, especially in Syria. In this regard, I earnestly hope that the Summit will help to obtain an immediate and lasting ceasefire and to bring all parties in the conflict to the negotiating table. Peace demands a far-sighted renunciation of certain claims, in order to build together a more equitable and just peace. Moreover, peace is an essential pre-requisite for the protection of women, children and other innocent victims, and for making a start towards conquering hunger, especially among the victims of war.

The actions included on the agenda of the British G8 Presidency, which point towards law as the golden thread of development – as well as the consequent commitments to deal with tax avoidance and to ensure transparency and responsibility on the part of governments – are measures that indicate the deep ethical roots of these problems, since, as my predecessor Benedict XVI made clear, the present global crisis shows that ethics is not something external to the economy, but is an integral and unavoidable element of economic thought and action. The long-term measures that are designed to ensure an adequate legal framework for all economic actions, as well as the associated urgent measures to resolve the global economic crisis, must be guided by the ethics of truth. This includes, first and foremost, respect for the truth of man, who is not simply an additional economic factor, or a disposable good, but is equipped with a nature and a dignity that cannot be reduced to simple economic calculus. Therefore concern for the fundamental material and spiritual welfare of every human person is the starting-point for every political and economic solution and the ultimate measure of its effectiveness and its ethical validity.

Moreover, the goal of economics and politics is to serve humanity, beginning with the poorest and most vulnerable wherever they may be, even in their mothers’ wombs. Every economic and political theory or action must set about providing each inhabitant of the planet with the minimum wherewithal to live in dignity and freedom, with the possibility of supporting a family, educating children, praising God and developing one’s own human potential. This is the main thing; in the absence of such a vision, all economic activity is meaningless.In this sense, the various grave economic and political challenges facing today’s world require a courageous change of attitude that will restore to the end (the human person) and to the means (economics and politics) their proper place. Money and other political and economic means must serve, not rule, bearing in mind that, in a seemingly paradoxical way, free and disinterested solidarity is the key to the smooth functioning of the global economy.

I wished to share these thoughts with you, Prime Minister,, with a view to highlighting what is implicit in all political choices, but can sometimes be forgotten: the primary importance of putting humanity, every single man and woman, at the centre of all political and economic activity, both nationally and internationally, because man is the truest and deepest resource for politics and economics, as well as their ultimate end.Dear Prime Minister, trusting that these thoughts have made a helpful spiritual contribution to your deliberations, I express my sincere hope for a fruitful outcome to your work and I invoke abundant blessings upon the Lough Erne Summit and upon all the participants, as well as upon the activities of the British G8 Presidency during the year 2013, and I take this opportunity to reiterate my good wishes and to express my sentiments of esteem.

Full text of David Cameron’s letter to Pope Francis, dated June 5:

Your Holiness,

When I said farewell to Pope Benedict at the end of his historic State Visit to Britain in September 2010, I made a number of promises. I said that the United Kingdom would keep its promises on aid, in particular in dedicating 0.7% of GNI to international development aid, despite the tough economic times. I said that we would continue to help the poorest and ensure the money we spend on aid goes to those who need it most. I also promised that we would redouble our resolve to work for the common good, working closely with the Holy See.In 2013, the United Kingdom holds the Presidency of the G8 group of nations.

I am determined to ensure that our G8 agenda will lead to real benefits for the global economy and will help people in developed and developing countries alike. Your Holiness has spoken eloquently about the need to rebalance the global economy, to help the poor and disadvantaged, and to find people work. My aim for our G8 Presidency, especially at the G8 Summit at Lough Erne on 17 and 18 June, is to do this by restoring strong and sustainable growth to the world economy by practical action on fairer taxes, freer trade, and greater transparency.

I will use the G8 to galvanise collective international action to effectively tackle tax evasion and aggressive tax avoidance – problems shared by developed and developing countries alike. We shall promote a new global standard for automatic information exchange between tax authorities to shrink the space for tax evasion. We shall provide political support for the ongoing OECD and G20 work to prevent some individuals and corporates artificially shifting their profits to ultra-low tax jurisdictions, distorting competition and seek to enhance the flow of information to tax authorities. We shall seek to set out concrete steps we will take to let law enforcement and tax collectors find out who really owns and controls every company. We shall also explore what more can be done by the G8 to support lower-income developing countries to collect the tax revenues owed to them, thereby strengthening their public services in areas like health and education on which people’s well-being depends.

On trade, I know the Vatican has taken a keen interest in trade liberalisation, particularly the potential that it offers to alleviate poverty, and the need to ensure the poorest countries are integrated into the global economy. This is very much in line with the trade agenda for Lough Eme. We shall ensure that the G8 shows leadership on free trade by opening our markets, resisting protectionism and supporting an open, global rule-based trading system to ensure that all countries can benefit from increased trade. Protectionism and trade bureaucracy are amongst the most significant brakes on the global economy, affecting developing and developed economies alike and creating a barrier to economic and social progress. This is why I will put political impetus on progressing bilateral and plurilateral deals as well as supporting the multilateral trading system.

We will support efforts to conclude a multilateral deal on Trade Facilitation at the WTO Ministerial Conference in December, which could add $70 billion to the global economy and would help boost trade in Africa in particular. We will also work with African countries to help them realise their goal of a Continental Free Trade Area, including through our support for regional integration. This could see intra-African trade double by 2022. If G8 countries complete all of their current trade deals and those in the pipeline, it could boost the income of the whole world by more than $1 trillion.

Under our G8 Presidency, I also want to see real progress on tackling food and nutrition insecurity through practical action and greater political commitment to fighting global malnutrition.Many of the world’s poorest countries are shackled by a lack of transparency, poor mles, corrupt practices and weak capacity. Too often, a veil of secrecy allows corrupt corporations and officials in countries to flout the law and prevent development. Too often, mineral wealth in developing countries becomes a curse rather than a blessing, as a lack of transparency fosters crime and corruption. Too often, instead of a shared hope for the next generation, such wealth brings conflict, greed, and environmental damage. Through the G8, I plan to push for mandatory higher global standards for the extractives sector, to encourage responsible and sustainable investment in land, and setting the standards for ensuring that government data are released in an open and useable format.

Finally, the High Level Panel Report on the post-2015 development agenda, which we transferred to the UN Secretary General last week, highlighted the importance of trade, tax and transparency to better the lives of the world’s poorest. The Report presents an ambitious roadmap to eradicate extreme poverty from the face of the earth by 2030. It says that everyone – regardless of gender, ethnicity, income, disability, age – must have their basic needs met, and their economic and human rights respected. It too makes a strong call for economic growth that promotes social inclusion and preserves the planet’s natural resources for future generations. It says that freedom from violence, good governance and justice are not only fundamental to achieving poverty eradication, but goods in themselves that all citizens of the world have equal right to enjoy. I hope that you will be able to read the Report and offer support for its core messages.You have called for disinterested solidarity and for a return to person-centred ethics in the world of finance and economics. As President of the G8, I aim to help secure the growth and stability on which the prosperity and welfare of the whole world depends. To do this, we must tackle the conditions that cause poverty, stiffen the sinews of responsible capitalism, and strengthen governance and transparency.

I believe that this path is one which requires more than the G8 to find success, that responsible governments, business and faiths can and should travel together, doing what we can to turn these values into practical action for the benefit of all.

Apr 23, 2013

Boston Bombing Suspects' uncle tells of familial break

Boston Bombing Suspects' uncle tells of familial break - YouTube

After Boston and Tsarnaevs, Russians Urge U.S. to Rethink Chechnya - NYTimes.com

Pedestrians cross Putin Prospect, one of the main streets in the Chechen capital Grozny on April 20.
Reuters Pedestrians cross Putin Prospect, one of the main streets in the 
Chechen capital Grozny on April 20.
After Boston and Tsarnaevs, Russians Urge U.S. to Rethink Chechnya - NYTimes.com
LONDON — Russian commentators are speculating that a Chechen connection in the Boston Marathon bombings will force the United States to reassess its view of the Kremlin’s actions in the troubled Caucasus region.
After the capture on Friday night of Dzhokhar A. Tsarnaev, the second suspect in Monday’s attack, following the death of Tamerlan Tsarnaev, his brother, in a gun battle with police, U.S. authorities have yet to establish a motive for the crime.
In Russia, as in the United States, attention focused on whether the bombings were connected with the politics of Chechnya, where the brothers’ family originated.
Reuters Pedestrians cross Putin Prospect, one of the main streets in the Chechen capital Grozny on April 20.
The possibility of such a connection being established is already raising questions about what it means for the recently strained relationship between Moscow and Washington.

Brother’s Keeper: Did Older Sibling Lure Bombing Suspect Into Plot? | TIME.com

Brother’s Keeper: Did Older Sibling Lure Bombing Suspect Into Plot? | TIME.com

Brother’s Keeper: Did Older Sibling Lure Bombing Suspect Into Plot?


The dramatic arrest of Boston Marathon bombing suspect Dzhokhar Tsarnaev on Friday night brought the entire city of Boston a collective sense of relief, with crowds streaming into the streets to chants of USA. But the end of the manhunt was in many ways just the start of the process for investigators trying to piece together what may have motivated Tsarnaev, 19, and his older brother Tamerlan, 26, who was killed by police early Friday morning. And details emerging over the first 24 hours since police captured the younger Tsarnaev in a backyard boat in Watertown, Mass., reinforce the growing perception that his older brother was the primary driver of the attack.

Mar 10, 2013

Beppe Grillo leads yet another right-wing cult from Ita

Austerity and its discontents

A group blog On Europe edited by Daniel Trilling
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Essay: beneath its populist surface, the Five Star Movement represents more of the same.


Beppe Grillo, at a pre-election rally in Rome on 22 February. (Photo: Getty.)
Beppe Grillo, at a pre-election rally in Rome on 22 February. (Photo: Getty.)
Marriage is a bond between a man and a woman. How can you institute marriage between two persons of the same sex? Why not marriage between three persons then? Why not marriage between you and your animal? Some people have a strong relationship with their animal, would you allow them to marry it?
(Francesco Perra, 5 Star Movement candidate at the recent national election, 8 June 2012 )
There is much confusion in other countries about what has been taking place in Italy in the past five years – the era of Late Berlusconism – and what is going on after the latest national election. At the time of writing, nobody knows what government Italy will have. No stable government can be formed without the vote of confidence of the Five Star Movement, the political organisation led by former stand-up comedian Beppe Grillo and web marketing guru Gianroberto Casaleggio. The Five Star Movement (5SM), which stood for national election for the first time, gained 25.5 per cent of votes for the Chamber of Deputies and 23.8 per cent for the Senate.