Talk to real master of situation, not his shadow
Before the G-20 Summit Putin
assured the world in the official interview that he
has not ruled out backing a U.S.-led military operation in Syria if the Kremlin
gets concrete proof than an alleged chemical attack on civilians was committed
by Bashar Assad’s regime. The sincerity of Putin’s intention was obvious – he
bases all his prestige on the Soviet Victory in the WWII over atrocious regime
of Hitler, but now he finds himself and Russia on the side of the “Syrian
Hitler”, using gas against his own people.
Putin understands that despite his huge propaganda efforts, he will not be
able to manipulate the public opinion for long. It seems suddenly he started to
realize that this time he risks remaining on the wrong side of history.
For the West the Kremlins condition
is quite easy to satisfy, as there are enough proofs that only the Assad forces
could conduct the chemical attack. Next
day – one day before the Summit - Putin unexpectedly produced a U-turn, publicly
called John Kerry a “liar” using an obvious manipulation. Putin’s
sudden change of heart is the main intrigue of the G-20 Summit and deserves
some attention.
Failed Mega Deal
What happened in between?
Day before the Summit Putin had a pompous meeting with the Chinese leader where
Russia expected to sign a mega-deal for gas supply to China. Then top Chinese official stated that any
military actions in Middle East would lead to the oil prices growth and because
of this the China opposes to the strike.
However, much advertised “mega-deal”,
expected by Russia, has failed as Chinese continue to insist on a half-price of
the usual price Russia gets in Europe.
Moreover, a couple days earlier
China signed a mega-deal with gas rich Turkmenistan, more than doubling the gas
exports to China. Day after the Summit China struck a $30 billion deal with
Kazakhstan including purchase of the $5 billion stake in the giant Kashagan oilfield.
Therefore, China is not in
hurry and can quietly wait, when Russia get totally isolated by the West and be
ready for a slow and quiet technical takeover by China. China doesn’t want to
invest in Russia, but agrees to finance some big industrial project as the Far
East with a precondition that this enterprises will be in its ownership and workers
will be only from China. As Russian economy is sinking despite the high oil and
gas prices Putin a bit earlier or later will have to accept the Chinese
proposition. This would mean a “forever concession” by China of the Russia’s
Far East.
Russia’s Political Bluffing
This makes Russia extremely
nervous and dependent on China. It gradually increases its influence in the
region, which Russia considers its “legitimate sphere of interests” and leaves
Russia out in the cold. However, Russia
does not dare to complain. Instead, it
pretends having a very special relation and a strong alliance with China as
opposing to the failing relation with the West.
China calls Russia a “major
country” and lets it fight its revisionist fights with the West, but does not view
Russia as an equal partner. On the
Chinese President visit’s web page there are mostly pictures of Chinese President with American President Obama,
but there is no any picture with Russian President Putin. This shows where the real China’s priorities
are.
Putin’s dependence on China
explains Putin’s U-turn. Trying hard to
please Chinese President, he found not exactly elegant way to reverse his
recent declaration on possible joining the international effort against Bashar
Assad by calling John Kerry a “liar” and returned to his usual slogans about Syria.
Upgrading Role for China
Putin’s miserable position,
which he masks with the massive PR efforts, promoting his image and ideas at
the West, makes him useless as a negotiator on Syria. The real master of the situation is China. If the
leader of this country really thinks that the oil price growth is the only
objection to the common action in Syria the negotiations should be conducted with
him, not with the politically impotent Putin. In this case, Chinese and the Western position
on Syria coincide. Russia on the contrary is objectively interested in
maintaining the civil war in Syria as a precondition for a high oil price, on
which Russian economy depends.
The U.S. should convince China
that the sooner the situation in Syria is resolved the sooner the oil prices would
go down. This could become a first international
action, where China can show its political maturity and responsibility for the
World. China could like this as it is follows
already the U.S. example offering assistance to the different countries. Cash
rich China can show a real leadership helping freed from the Assad’s regime Syria
after the conflict is over.
